A burgeoning black market could prove increasingly problematic for the people of Ukraine - and this is what authorities there need to be mindful of.
Professor Bryce Evans, Chair in Modern World History at Liverpool Hope University, has written extensively about food in times of conflict.
With several cities in Ukraine under siege amid Russian attack - and food becoming scarce - it’s a topic that has been brought into sharp focus in recent days.
And Professor Evans warns of an impending double-edged sword - while the blame lays entirely at Russia’s feet.
On the one hand, black marketeers could use established ‘smuggling routes’ to supply crucial food to a starving population, particularly if humanitarian aid falls short.
But on the other hand, gangsters who are now armed with guns freshly-supplied by the Ukrainian government could prove particularly difficult to bring to heel.
Professor Evans explains: “I have real fears about the development of a black market in Ukraine, not just for food but also for medicine, drugs, guns and also sex.
“A week ago you had a functioning market economy in Ukraine. But now money is becoming worthless and food shortages are beginning to hit.
“Black markets will emerge. Profiteering will boom. And the big question now is how these markets will function, or be allowed to function.
“If the markets are used to get food to people who need it, they could be a sort of saving grace for besieged people. But it’s all about who uses them - and exploits them - and whether or not the Ukrainian authorities can keep a lid on it.”
Professor Evans says we only need to look at the Russian military intervention in the Syrian civil war, which began in 2015, for hints at how the conflict in Ukraine might play out when it comes to food supplies.
He adds: “If Russia can’t isolate insurgents in these densely populated areas, they simply seal off huge chunks of the city and shell it to bits, terrifying the besieged population.
“It makes life impossible. And when this happened in Syria, in cities like Aleppo, you saw huge price inflation. In Damascus, 2014, a bag of rice cost 66 US cents. In besieged areas under rebel control five miles away, on the other hand, that bag of rice cost 21 US dollars.
“I’d argue that we’re going to see those sorts of price rises in besieged Ukrainian cities, too. And it’s here that food brought into cities via smuggling routes might be a lifeline.”
Professor Evans, a Fellow of the Royal Historical Society, says that in Sarajevo during the Bosnian War of the early-to-mid Nineties, smuggling routes - largely a network of tunnel systems - were used to get food into the besieged city.
He reveals: “All sides knew that this smuggling route was there, and all sides tolerated it.
“But my worry for Ukraine is that you’ve had a situation where guns have been given to civilians to protect themselves and it may become increasingly difficult for Ukraine civil defence militias, or the government, to either clamp down hard on smugglers or to control the market on their own terms.
“And there has to be a basis of fair pricing and fair distribution for the most needy, even within a black market.”
Professor Evans predicts the situation could become even messier if beleaguered Russian soldiers also muscle-in on the emerging black market.
He adds: “If Russia takes more territory, they could take control of the ‘humanitarian corridors’. Again, it’s something we saw in Bosnia and Syria.
“And I’d expect huge amounts of corruption in terms of underfed, underpaid Russian soldiers taking bribes to let goods through checkpoints.”
With the eyes of the world watching, Professor Evans believes that Vladimir Putin, Russia’s President, will not use absolute starvation as a ‘weapon of war’ - because he will have one eye on the International Criminal Court (ICC) and potential incarceration.
For now, the west’s main priority should be assisting the international agencies in the development of the humanitarian corridors, says Professor Evans.